Who's On First?
Posted by Pete Bouchard
If you're reading this, chances are you came here to get more detail on what the heck is happening tomorrow. No doubt the forecasts are all over the place. You've probably heard there will be snow "here" but not "there". Heavy snow may be possible, but not guaranteed. Favors the coast, but that's anywhere from Portland to Chatham. And they're calling it some cop-out name like "Norman".
Do they really pay these people to make forecasts?
Let's take this from the top.This snow event tonight and tomorrow is what's known as a Norlun Trough. It was named after two meteorologists who provided ground-breaking research on the subject back in the early 1990s: Steve Noguiera and Weir Lundstedt. (Not sure where the "r" part came from.) In any event, the event seems unique to the New England coast and is burned into the memories of just about every meteorologist who attempts to predict them. There are many times the event doesn't materialize and/or we come away with half our forecasted snow amounts, just because of the sheer variability and difficulty of simulating the event in our weather models. Many liken this to a summertime "chance of thunderstorms" forecast: conditions may be favorable for a storm, but that doesn't mean you'll get hit.
And that's how I'm playing it. There are some things that are still beyond the level of detail provided by our weather models. While I'm not walking away from the storm, I'll tell you my confidence is running a little below normal. Last time we had one in New England was in early January 2011 in Connectictut. Over a foot of snow fell in southwestern parts of the state.
Now it seems the axis of heavy snow will be just out of reach - shifting towards Portland, Maine. Our amounts have gone down from this evening as a result.
Like I said, it's just like forecasting summer storms...which is kinda where I wish we were now.
Here's a "fer-shur": Bitter air will follow in the wake of this storm tomorrow night and Wednesday. This is long term stuff too. May not come up "for air" until early next week.
Pete
Storms, Heat, Sea Breezes
Posted by Pete Bouchard
What a day! Breakneck temperature swings, thunder, tornadoes in Western Mass....and we're still in late May!
More Warmth
Posted by Jeremy Reiner
You have another warm & humid day with many towns repeating yesterday's weather. That means we start with clouds & fog for a bit before hazy sun gets going. That hazy sunshine will boost temps up into the low 80s by early to mid afternoon across much of the region. At the same time a cool front will begin dropping out of Maine (backdoor front) which will quickly send temps from the 70s/80s down into the 50s/60s by late afternoon & evening. Also, when this front rams into the warmth & humidity it will spark a few showers & thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Summ-ah!
Posted by Pete Bouchard
With the snap of the fingers we were thrown into summer this afternoon. Heat, humidity, A/C and shorts - with a hazy sun to boot. But with the sea breeze knocking back the temperatures (and bringing in a round of downpours this evening), there are changes afoot.
Feet First
Posted by Jeremy Reiner
Right into summer. Warm & humid weather expected for much of the week. Good?.....Well, keep in mind that warmth & humidity are the 2 key ingredients for thunderstorms. The last being something to *lift* that warm/humid air. Usually a front is a good device to do such that. Today, we will have a cool front approach New England very late in the day & evening. That may lead to an isolated storm or two after 4pm but most towns just have a fair amount of clouds, warmth & humidity. Temps will climb to near 80 by afternoon.