Pete Bouchard

Turning It Around

Posted by Pete Bouchard

Throughout the morning, our nor'easter remained stalled over Nantucket. As it gained a "second wind", renewed gusts rotated around it, hammering the Cape and the Islands to the tune of 50-60mph. I'm happy to say that over the last two hours, our nor'easter has finally shown signs of moving!

The forward speed should increase in the next few hours and as a result, the winds will drop dramatically and there may even be some breaks in the overcast toward sunset.

So what went wrong with the forecast? Why did so many places end up with more (plowable) snow than rain? There are many answers to that question, but the short story is that we had some unusually cold, dry air in place across Northern Mass. and Southern NH. That was carried into the storm on a north wind yesterday afternoon, changing the rain over snow within hours. As it kept feeding in, the snow got fluffier, the roads got colder, and we were caught in a feedback loop.

Behind the scenes, I'm a little disappointed in the weather models we use. We seem to have a widening gap between the short range (next 12-48hrs) and the medium and long range (two to seven days) models. They don't jive, they don't see eye to eye, and we're constantly filling the gaps between them. I dare say, sometimes I feel more confident in the 2-7 day period than a I do over the next 1-2 days!! The medium and long range model (from Europe) we use is the cream of the crop. It nailed Sandy's path 7 days out! Meantime, the shorter range models (from the US) still wanted to bring her to New England, push her through to Ohio, and generally fought among themselves over a solution.

Time will tell if we work the kinks out, but I don't hold out much hope. With the "fiscal cliff" on the horizon, there won't be much money devoted to new synergies between the government and academia over model improvements. But fear not, I've become pretty good at flying by the seat of my pants.

In the meantime, we're increasing the sun in the coming days (there is agreement on that matter), and juicing up the temperatures for the weekend. Confidence is running high on hitting the 60s by Veterans Day.


Chris Lambert

50/50 Weekend

Posted by Chris Lambert

We're off to an iffy start to the weekend as nuisance rain and wet snow moves across the area.  While it's not a well organized area of low pressure, it develops right near us midday, and that'll be enough for a tricky forecast.  Light to moderate  rain/snow is on and off early this morning with a heavier burst of precipitation possible late morning, through mid afternoon in eastern MA (11:00AM-3:00PM).

Posted 01/18/14, 6:54am
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Pete Bouchard

Final Days

Posted by Pete Bouchard

That's the way to get it done! Fine finish to the workweek as sun dominated and winds behaved.

I submit that is the one - and perhaps only - reason these days have felt springlike in this extended thaw. If the winds were gusty on a day like today, the sun (albeit a little stronger these days) is really no help.

Posted 01/17/14, 5:06pm
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Jeremy Reiner

Great Mid-Winter Weather

Posted by Jeremy Reiner

Nice mid-winter weather? Here's how I envision it:


*Mild temps (40 or higher)

*Little to no wind

That last bullet point (IMO) is probably the biggest when outside this time of year. After our morning fog lifts out of here all three of those criteria will be met this afternoon's Friday. #Winning.

Posted 01/17/14, 7:04am
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Pete Bouchard

Colder Temperatures Cometh

Posted by Pete Bouchard

As far as blah days go, this was the blahest.

Fog blanketed the area as winds remained light and variable. We're still looking at some fog, but the thickest part of it should only be during the first half of the night. After that, gentle winds should "mix out" some of the heavily fogged in areas.

Posted 01/16/14, 5:24pm
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