Chris Lambert

Sandy's Trend Continues West

Posted by Chris Lambert

The 5:00 AM update from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Sandy with sustained winds of 80mph and moving north at 13mph.  The expected track has continued to edge west over the last few days, and the National Hurricane Center has the center of the storm going into either south Jersey or Delaware.  Notice the forecast cone though?  There is an inherent margin of error this far out, and a more northern track would bring more significant impacts to New England. 

The more likely scenario right now, and the track, as is, would bring in wind and rain Monday afternoon, through Tuesday.  Winds would gust 40-60mph, mostly onshore, strongest at the coast, and we'd contend with 2-5" of rain through the storm.  Scattered power outages would be felt across the area and moderate beach erosion and coastal flooding becomes an issue at high tides.  Overall effects would be similar to a strong nor'easter. 

While this seems to be the more likely outcome, I don't want to let our guard down against a track farther north.  It's why the National Hurricane Center gives a forecast fan, and not just a direct line.  This far out, the forecast error can be a couple hundred miles.   

It's a very complicated and an anomalous pattern, and timing the phasing of a tropical system with a non-tropical upper-level low can be tricky.  If Sandy can maintain a warm core longer into the forecast period, the resistance to phase may also hold on a bit longer than some of the models project.  If that occurs, the turn NW into the coast happens farther north, putting southern New England in a more serious situation that the current path would take it. Wind, power outages and coastal flooding would be significant.  Again, this outcome is not as likely, but a plausible one.  Not that we wish ill on other locations, but the blocking pattern has been extremely strong, and thus it's tough to fight that forecast trend west.

   

Chris Lambert

50/50 Weekend

Posted by Chris Lambert

We're off to an iffy start to the weekend as nuisance rain and wet snow moves across the area.  While it's not a well organized area of low pressure, it develops right near us midday, and that'll be enough for a tricky forecast.  Light to moderate  rain/snow is on and off early this morning with a heavier burst of precipitation possible late morning, through mid afternoon in eastern MA (11:00AM-3:00PM).

Posted 01/18/14, 6:54am
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Pete Bouchard

Final Days

Posted by Pete Bouchard

That's the way to get it done! Fine finish to the workweek as sun dominated and winds behaved.

I submit that is the one - and perhaps only - reason these days have felt springlike in this extended thaw. If the winds were gusty on a day like today, the sun (albeit a little stronger these days) is really no help.

Posted 01/17/14, 5:06pm
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Jeremy Reiner

Great Mid-Winter Weather

Posted by Jeremy Reiner

Nice mid-winter weather? Here's how I envision it:

*Sunshine

*Mild temps (40 or higher)

*Little to no wind

That last bullet point (IMO) is probably the biggest when outside this time of year. After our morning fog lifts out of here all three of those criteria will be met this afternoon AND.....it's Friday. #Winning.

Posted 01/17/14, 7:04am
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Pete Bouchard

Colder Temperatures Cometh

Posted by Pete Bouchard

As far as blah days go, this was the blahest.

Fog blanketed the area as winds remained light and variable. We're still looking at some fog, but the thickest part of it should only be during the first half of the night. After that, gentle winds should "mix out" some of the heavily fogged in areas.

Posted 01/16/14, 5:24pm
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